The Black Swan
The Black Swan is a metaphor coined by Juvenal in the I Century, later on associated with the idea of a surprising, high-impact event. Originally it refer to something that could happen despite the fact of being unknown or inexistent, as it could be finding a black swan, since in the Old World only white ones were known.
That is something that may happen to us during a trip. One of our employees on travel may get sick and the closer hospital may be at eight hour by car. Or the company with whom we were considering setting a new business in a new country miles away, bankrupt. Both of them are rare events with a low probability of occurrence, but when they take form they have a great potential to alter our daily working routines and our business operation.
But a Black Swan is not necessarily bad. As well as the 9/11 was considered a black swan, so was the discovery of Internet.
Currently there is hope for “good” Black Swans to come, as South Africa registering the highest rations of growth in the world, or women breaking the “crystal rooftop” in 60 companies in the Fortune 500 ranking.
Because of all that, we must be ready for upcoming Black Swans, not only to mitigate the impact of the improbable fact, but also to predict possible emerging markets to invest our company’s values.
How to identify a Black Swan.
- The fact has a great impact.
- It is surprising and considered as highly improbable to happen.
- After the occurrence, we can conclude after analyzing all the variables involved that we could have waited for it and we werent’t ready enough to manage the incident.